When   Monday, November 2, 2009   Time   4:00 PM - 5:00 PM  
Where   Technological Instit M 416 2145 Sheridan Rd.   map it
Audience   - Faculty/Staff - Student - Public
Contact   Molly E Scanlon   +1 847 491 5586  
Group   McCormick-Colloquia Engineering Sciences and Applied Mathematics

Applied Math Colloquium

Title: Improving Prediction of Random Epidemic Outbreaks

Speaker: Eric Forgoston, United States Naval Research Laboratory

Abstract:

Modeling epidemics to predict the occurrence of disease outbreaks is of paramount importance since population case data is deficient when compared to model simulation. However, the prediction of epidemic outbreaks is difficult due to the complex nature of the dynamics. This complexity arises from random fluctuations in the population, as well as from the nonlinear mass action contact between individuals. In this talk, a class of epidemic models which includes random fluctuations will be presented. New tools of model reduction for random dynamical systems will be introduced and applied to the epidemic models to enhance the predictability of disease outbreaks. Moreover, these tools allow for improved prediction of the overall probability of the number of cases, as well as improved prediction of the correct phase at which the outbreaks occur.

This work was done in collaboration with Dr. Lora Billings and Dr. Ira B. Schwartz, and was supported by the Office of Naval Research and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research.