Description:

Wednesdays@NICO Seminar | 12:00-1:00 PM, April 1, 2015 | Chambers Hall, Lower Level

The Lens of Time: Linking Prior Knowledge and Future Impact in Science, Patenting, and Law

Benjamin Jones, Gordon and Llura Gund Family Professor of Entrepreneurship, Professor of Strategy, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University

Abstract
Scientists and others sample an ever-expanding stock of knowledge in search of ingenuity. This paper examines one dimension of sampling behavior: Time. Using chronometric methods to examine (1) 28.4 million Web of Science papers, (2) 5.38 million U.S. patents, and (3) 19,842 U.S. Supreme Court rulings, we found that amidst the proclivity for sampling recent work, one sampling distribution is intimately linked to future impact. This referencing distribution is centered in time just behind the bleeding edge while featuring above average temporal dispersion. Papers with this referencing distribution appear twice as often in the top 5 or top 1 percent of citations. Referencing distributions focusing on vintage, widespread or bleeding edge work fail to exceed background hit rates. This pattern appears universal – it holds in science, patenting, and legal decisions, revealing a powerful link between ensuing impact and the chronometric sampling of prior work (Satyam Mukherjee, Daniel Romero, Benjamin Jones, and Brian Uzzi).

Bio
Benjamin F. Jones is the Gordon and Llura Gund Family Professor of Entrepreneurship, a Professor of Strategy, and the faculty director of the Kellogg Innovation and Entrepreneurship Initiative. An economist by training, his research focuses largely on innovation and creativity, with recent work investigating the role of teamwork in innovation and the relationship between age and invention. Professor Jones also studies global economic development, including the roles of education, climate, and national leadership in explaining the wealth and poverty of nations. His research has appeared in journals such as Science, the Quarterly Journal of Economics and the American Economic Review, and has been profiled in media outlets such as the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, and The New Yorker. A former Rhodes Scholar, Professor Jones served in 2010-2011 as the senior economist for macroeconomics for the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and earlier served in the U.S. Department of the Treasury. In 2011, he was awarded the Stanley Reiter Best Paper Award for the best academic article written by a Kellogg faculty member in the prior four years.