Description:

Kensuke Maeba (Northwestern University): "Evaluating Extrapolation Across Contexts and Policies With Cash Transfer Experiments"

Abstract:

Extrapolation from existing policies is useful for predicting the effects of new policies. Previous research extrapolates either from the same policy in a similar context or from a similar policy in the same context. Little is known, however, about which similarity makes better predictions. Using cash transfer experiments in Malawi and Morocco, we study the performance of these two extrapolations for predicting the effects of cash transfers on schooling. To project where predictions differ on economic theory, we construct and estimate a dynamic discrete choice model for schooling decisions, causally identified with exogenous cash transfers.