Description:

Chris Sims (Northwestern University) - (De-)Industrialization and Trade: Evidence from the Danish Sound Dues 

Abstract: Using a large historical data set on trade in Europe, I document that the Baltic region saw declining export shares and increasing trade deficits in manufactured goods between 1700 and 1850, becoming more pronounced over the course of the British Industrial Revolution, which I interpret as evidence of de-industrialization. I will also discuss future strategies for understanding the causes of de-industrialization based on exposure to the British Industrial Revolution

Matteo Giugovaz (Northwestern University) - Forced Migration and Political Outcomes: Insights from the Istrian Dalmatian Exodus after WWII

Abstract: I study the effects of same-ethnicity forced migration on political outcomes by exploiting a unique historical setting: the Istrian Dalmatian Exodus. After WWII, 290,000 individuals flew formerly Italian areas that had passed under Yugoslavian control. This outmigration, supported by the new socialist Yugoslavian state, was spurred by ethnic persecutions and was perceived as political oppression; these persecutions left strong anti-communist marks on migrants. By leveraging previously unexplored data, I study the impact of refugees’ arrival on political views. My results show that the presence of a refugee camp is associated with greater political polarization and an increase in national election turnout between 1946 and 1958. I document a strong and significant increase in support for the right-wing parties and a decrease for the moderate centrist block. These results are consistent with either a “red scare” mechanism or horizontal transmission of anti-communist values between immigrants and natives.