Description:

"Mass Shooting or Mass Confusion?"

by Lori Ann Post, Buehler Professor for Aging, Director of the Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, and IPR Associate

Abstract: In 2021, firearm homicide claimed the lives of 20,958 U.S. residents, while eight mass shootings resulted in 53 deaths and 23 injuries. Only 0.003% of U.S. homicides that year stemmed from public mass shootings, yet Americans experience palpable anxiety regarding the possibility of themselves, their friends, or their families dying in a mass shooting. What accounts for the vast contrast between perceived risk and the actual likelihood of dying in a mass shooting? Two primary factors contribute to this discrepancy: The disproportionate media coverage meticulously detailing every aspect of the mass shooter, and the polarized and inconsistent definition of what qualifies as a mass shooting, varying among researchers or driven by political agendas.

In this colloquium, Post will review the problem of conflating public mass shootings with other types of gun violence and why varying definitions change the profile of a public mass shooter. A latent class analysis of mass shooter characteristics reveals there are at least two distinct profiles. One group can be described as "Failure-to-Launch," where the mass shooter is typically a parasite, enabled by family members well into adulthood—usually his parents. This individual may have either dropped out of school or been expelled, is unemployed, has quit or refuses to work, left the military, or was discharged, lacks friends or a romantic partner, is an incel and is developmentally stunted. In contrast, the second group, termed "Self-Implode," comprises individuals who had achieved some success in education, employment, or relationships but experienced a sudden downfall, resulting in financial losses, job terminations, or the dissolution of a marriage, and have a suicide plan.

Even though "Failure-to-Launch" and "Self-Implode" mass shooters represent distinct profiles, they share a common baseline of hatred, aggrieved entitlement, antisocial behavior, and spend weeks to years thoughtfully researching, planning, and fantasizing about mass killing. Since tracking began in 1966, unlike other types of killers, every public mass shooter had no intention of escaping unknown. Understanding these distinctions is crucial to accurately assessing the dynamics behind mass shootings, enabling targeted interventions, and developing strategies for prevention.

This event is part of the Fay Lomax Cook Winter 2024 Colloquium Series, where IPR researchers from around the University share their latest policy-relevant research.

Please note all colloquia this quarter will be held in-person only.