Pablo A. Pena (University of Chicago): Choosing Season of Birth: A Fresh Look
Abstract: W e present a theoretical model where mothers choose the season of birth under pregnancy uncertainty. The model produces implications about seasonality of unintended births and seasonality differences across maternal human capital. We test those implications using U.S. birth certificates and find that environmental factors at conception create seasonality. In some states, births to high-human capital mothers show less seasonality than unintentional births. Importantly, high-human capital mothers aren't more likely to repeat season of birth across successive births than low-human capital mothers. The widespread notion that high-human capital mothers have strong preferences for season of birth seems misplaced.