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Speaker: Tomer Novikov

Title: The lack of use of violence in the 1936 Spanish military coup: Bayesian updates and polarization

Abstract: Military coups have been a prominent method for changing governments. However, despite the capacity for violence in the military, its coercive power, and the high stakes involved, violence is relatively rare during the crucial first hours of a coup when success is determined. This is especially prominent in the case of the 1936 Spanish military coup, in which a relatively bloodless and decentralized coup ignited a civil war characterized by atrocities. First we construct a simple mathematical model for military coups. Then, after removing complete information, we observe that the effects on military officers’ Bayesian updates from the use of violence cause it to be relegated to a desperation play, since it signals weakness. We then observe the effects of ideology on both the use of violence and the outcomes in the 1936 coup using available secondary sources.