Speakers: Tomer Novikov and Mariya Sarkhova
Speaker: Tomer Novikov
Title: The lack of use of violence in the 1936 Spanish military coup: Bayesian updates and polarization.
Abstract: Military coups have been a prominent method for changing governments. However, despite the capacity for violence in the military, its coercive power, and the high stakes involved, violence is relatively rare during the crucial first hours of a coup when success is determined. This is especially prominent in the case of the 1936 Spanish military coup, in which a relatively bloodless and decentralized coup ignited a civil war characterized by atrocities. First we construct a simple mathematical model for military coups. Then, after removing complete information, we observe that the effects on military officers’ Bayesian updates from the use of violence cause it to be relegated to a desperation play, since it signals weakness. We then observe the effects of ideology on both the use of violence and the outcomes in the 1936 coup using available secondary sources.
Speaker: Mariya Sarkhova
Title: Victory over Vodka? The Consequences of the Russian Empire’s Spirits Monopoly (joint with Tom Raster)
Abstract: Alcohol imposes high economic and social costs, yet how to regulate it effectively is subject to an ongoing debate in the face of bootlegging as well as other illegal procurement and consumption practices. This paper studies the impact of the Russian Empire's state alcohol monopoly (1895–1914) on public health, crime, productivity, and state revenues. Exploiting the staggered introduction of the monopoly that replaced excise taxes, we document adverse effects on health and crime (both likely through bootlegging), while state revenues increased. These findings illustrate the dilemma faced by weak states that often rely heavily on revenues from harmful substances.
Maggie Hendrix
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