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DUE TO A LAST MINUTE CONFLICT THE FOLLOWING EVENT WILL BE RESCHEDULED FOR A LATER DATE.

Please join the Comparative Politics Workshop as they host Daniel de Kadt, presenting "The political legacy of the Marikana massacre". Daniel de Kadt is a Senior Data Scientist with Deliveroo and a Senior Visiting Fellow with London School of Economics

The presentation will be virtual with an in-person gathering in Scott Hall 212. Lunch will be served. 

Abstract: Democratic governments sometimes use violence against their people, yet little is known about the electoral consequences of these events. Studying South Africa’s Marikana massacre, we document how a new opposition party formed as a direct result of violence, quantify significant electoral losses for the incumbent, and show that those losses were driven by voters switching from the incumbent to the new party. Three lessons emerge. First, incumbents who preside over state violence may be held electorally accountable by voters. Second, such accountability seemingly depends on the existence of credible opposition parties that can serve as a vector for disaffected voters. Where such parties do not exist, violence may create political cleavages that facilitate the formalization of opposition movements. Third, immediate proximity to violence is correlated with holding incumbents accountable.