Please join the International Relations Speaker Series as they host V. Page Fortna, Harold Brown Professor of US Foreign and Security Policy and Chair of the Political Science Department at Columbia University.
This book project examines variation in the use of terrorism by rebel groups fighting civil wars. It addresses two questions, what explains this variation? (here terrorism is the dependent variable); and what are the consequences of that variation for the outcome of the war -- in other words, is it effective? (here terrorism is the independent variable). I focus on deliberately indiscriminate attacks on civilians, and show that there is significant variation in the use of the this tactic across rebel groups and across time. I argue that the costs and benefits of terrorism vary, and that variation, particularly in the legitimacy costs of terrorism, explains variation in its use. Largely due to these legitimacy costs, terrorism is generally an ineffective strategy. While it can be useful for some process goals, including organizational survival, terrorism ultimately undermines the chances that rebel organizations will win outright or achieve their political goals at the negotiating table. I employ a mixed-methods empirical strategy, combining quantitative analysis of original data on the use of terrorism by rebel organizations and in-depth analysis of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in the Sri Lankan civil war.
Page Fortna (Ph.D. Harvard, 1998) is the Harold Brown Professor of U.S. Foreign and Security Policy in the Department of Political Science. Her research focuses on terrorism, the international politics of climate change, the durability of peace in the aftermath of both civil and interstate wars, and war termination. She is the author of two books: Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerents Choices after Civil War (Princeton University Press, 2008) and Peace Time: Cease-Fire Agreements and the Durability of Peace (Princeton University Press, 2004). She has published articles in journals such as International Organization, Perspectives on Politics, the Journal of Conflict Resolution, World Politics, International Studies Quarterly, and International Studies Review. She is currently working on projects on terrorism in civil wars and international power in the anthropocene. Her research combines quantitative and qualitative methods, draws on diverse theoretical approaches, and focuses on policy-relevant questions. Fortna was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2021. She received the Lenfest Distinguished Columbia Faculty Award in 2014, and the Karl Deutsch Award from the International Studies Association in 2010. She has held fellowships at the International Centre for Ethnic Studies in Colombo, Sri Lanka, the Dickey Center at Dartmouth, the Olin Institute at Harvard, the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the Hoover Institution. She received her BA from Wesleyan University. Professor Fortna teaches courses on international politics, climate change, war termination and the durability of peace, terrorism, cooperation and security,
Ariel Sowers
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